{"id":"01a1e078-0ac9-75e7-9edc-64cd9431771d","title":"Will Dacian Ciolos be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?","target_type":"event","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-11-17T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.2,"as_of":"2026-11-15T18:28:45.896651Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1e077-ec88-7e6e-a66e-0566a954b3d1","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-15T18:28:45.896651Z","condition":"Yes if the OIF heads of state and government select former Romanian prime minister Dacian Ciolos as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term at the closed session of 16 November 2026 (by consensus or simple-majority vote), with the result announced at the closing session. No if Mushikiwabo or Coumba Ba is selected, or the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1e077-ec88-7e6e-a66e-0566a954b3d1","title":"Will Louise Mushikiwabo be elected to a third term as OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}