{"id":"01a1e077-ec88-7e6e-a66e-0566a954b3d1","title":"Will Louise Mushikiwabo be elected to a third term as OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?","target_type":"event","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-11-17T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.72,"as_of":"2026-11-15T18:28:38.149554Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-15T18:28:38.149554Z","condition":"Yes if the OIF heads of state and government, meeting in closed session at the 20th Francophonie Summit in Phnom Penh on 16 November 2026 (result announced at the closing session), select Rwanda's incumbent Louise Mushikiwabo as Secretary-General for the 2027-2030 term — whether by consensus or by simple-majority vote of the 53 full members. No if any other candidate (Dacian Ciolos, Coumba Ba) is selected, or if the selection is postponed past 17 November 2026.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1e078-0ac9-75e7-9edc-64cd9431771d","title":"Will Dacian Ciolos be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?","status":"open","probability":0.2,"as_of":"2026-11-15T18:28:45.896651Z","deadline":"2026-11-17T23:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1e078-25b6-7490-83be-3b8d3c45f85f","title":"Will Coumba Ba be elected OIF Secretary-General at the 16 November 2026 Phnom Penh vote?","status":"open","probability":0.08,"as_of":"2026-11-15T18:28:52.789738Z","deadline":"2026-11-17T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}