{"id":"01a1dd6e-6a95-7ef0-b0ad-d474b625e268","title":"Will the 5.3% SMI increase for 2027 instead be left unapproved by 24 November 2026 — deferred to the caretaker government or the government formed after the 29 November election?","target_type":"decision","target_id":"01a1dd48-46fa-7e17-a6a0-78645b3d7c79","deadline":"2026-11-25T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-15T04:19:23.413242Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1dd6e-4a46-7a95-ab2b-2ee958b04343","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-15T04:19:23.413242Z","condition":"YES if no Council of Ministers approval of the 2027 SMI royal decree has occurred by 24 November 2026, so that the increase must be approved later (by the caretaker executive or the incoming government, possibly retroactively). NO if the decree was approved on or before 24 November 2026.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1dd6e-4a46-7a95-ab2b-2ee958b04343","title":"Will Spain's Council of Ministers approve the royal decree raising the SMI by 5.3% for 2027 on or before 24 November 2026, i.e. before the 29 November general election?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}