{"id":"01a1dcf5-377f-7723-92d3-767d5ab34df2","title":"Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting (decision announced 9 December 2026)?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1db9e-7cde-7608-bd9a-fefa7ecad97e","deadline":"2026-12-10T04:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.86,"as_of":"2026-11-15T02:07:00.478910Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-15T02:07:00.478910Z","condition":"YES if the FOMC statement released at the close of the 8–9 December 2026 meeting (scheduled 14:00 ET, 9 December 2026) announces a target range for the federal funds rate whose upper bound is at least 25bp above the 4.00% upper bound in effect after the 27–28 October 2026 meeting (i.e. 4.25% or higher). NO if the range is left unchanged at 3.75–4.00% or is lowered. Resolution source: federalreserve.gov FOMC statement / implementation note.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1dcf5-5df7-7e50-b739-66bff2069710","title":"Will the FOMC raise by 50 basis points (to 4.25–4.50%) at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?","status":"open","probability":0.1,"as_of":"2026-11-15T02:07:10.327344Z","deadline":"2026-12-10T04:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1dcf5-5e08-7c9c-95c1-00552359b1ff","title":"Will the FOMC leave the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the 8–9 December 2026 meeting?","status":"open","probability":0.14,"as_of":"2026-11-15T02:07:10.343998Z","deadline":"2026-12-10T04:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}