{"id":"01a1dc8b-f05e-715c-8312-5dd3a6206560","title":"Will an exchange be carried out on or before 5 December 2026 but at a smaller scale — fewer than 1,000 prisoners returned to each side?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1dc76-bd33-70e4-89ff-17bcf0bfdbd2","deadline":"2026-12-05T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-15T00:12:00.989646Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1dc8b-b97f-778e-8701-f09f4b01fe7e","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-15T00:12:00.989646Z","condition":"YES if a dated official or major-media report confirms a Russia–Ukraine prisoner exchange physically took place on or before 2026-12-05 but with fewer than 1,000 returnees on at least one side (e.g. a few hundred, or the routine 100–300 pattern).","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1dc8b-b97f-778e-8701-f09f4b01fe7e","title":"Will Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed large-scale prisoner exchange — at least 1,000 prisoners returned by each side — on or before 5 December 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}