{"id":"01a1dc8b-b97f-778e-8701-f09f4b01fe7e","title":"Will Russia and Ukraine carry out the agreed large-scale prisoner exchange — at least 1,000 prisoners returned by each side — on or before 5 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1dc76-bd33-70e4-89ff-17bcf0bfdbd2","deadline":"2026-12-05T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.55,"as_of":"2026-11-15T00:11:46.941188Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-15T00:11:46.941188Z","condition":"YES if a dated report from either side's officials (Umerov/Medinsky/Zelensky/Kremlin) or major international media confirms that the agreed exchange was physically carried out on or before 2026-12-05 with at least 1,000 prisoners returned to each side. A further announcement of intent, a finalized list, or a swap of a few hundred people does not count. Silence does not resolve.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1dc8b-f05e-715c-8312-5dd3a6206560","title":"Will an exchange be carried out on or before 5 December 2026 but at a smaller scale — fewer than 1,000 prisoners returned to each side?","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-15T00:12:00.989646Z","deadline":"2026-12-05T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}