{"id":"01a1dbb8-e99e-7c2e-a49f-b36e64da2b47","title":"Will the ICJ reject The Gambia's genocide claims against Myanmar outright, finding no breach of the Genocide Convention?","target_type":"event","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-11-20T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.2,"as_of":"2026-11-14T20:21:31.165502Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1dbb8-61e3-729a-8b09-f9b136c4b98d","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T20:21:31.165502Z","condition":"YES if the 19 November 2026 judgment rejects The Gambia's claims — i.e. the Court finds that genocidal intent is not the only reasonable inference from the 2016–2017 conduct (following Croatia v. Serbia, 2015), so Myanmar is not held responsible for committing, conspiring to commit, failing to prevent or failing to punish genocide. A separate finding that Myanmar failed to comply with the January 2020 provisional measures order does not by itself make this branch NO. Resolution source: the Court's judgment and press release at icj-cij.org/case/178.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1dbb8-61e3-729a-8b09-f9b136c4b98d","title":"Will the ICJ's judgment in The Gambia v. Myanmar, to be delivered on 19 November 2026, find Myanmar responsible for committing genocide against the Rohingya?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}