{"id":"01a1dbb8-b2af-7198-b485-54c0900557ee","title":"Will the ICJ instead find Myanmar responsible only for failing to prevent and/or punish genocide (or conspiracy), without holding it responsible for committing genocide?","target_type":"event","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-11-20T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-14T20:21:17.102690Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1dbb8-61e3-729a-8b09-f9b136c4b98d","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T20:21:17.102690Z","condition":"YES if the 19 November 2026 judgment holds that Myanmar breached the Genocide Convention by failing to prevent genocide and/or failing to punish persons who committed genocide (and/or by conspiring to commit genocide), but does NOT hold Myanmar responsible for committing genocide itself. This is the Bosnia v. Serbia (2007) template: genocidal acts established, but commission not attributed / intent to destroy not established against the state. Resolution source: the Court's judgment and press release at icj-cij.org/case/178.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1dbb8-61e3-729a-8b09-f9b136c4b98d","title":"Will the ICJ's judgment in The Gambia v. Myanmar, to be delivered on 19 November 2026, find Myanmar responsible for committing genocide against the Rohingya?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}