{"id":"01a1dbb8-61e3-729a-8b09-f9b136c4b98d","title":"Will the ICJ's judgment in The Gambia v. Myanmar, to be delivered on 19 November 2026, find Myanmar responsible for committing genocide against the Rohingya?","target_type":"event","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-11-20T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.35,"as_of":"2026-11-14T20:20:56.416200Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T20:20:56.416200Z","condition":"YES if the ICJ, in its merits judgment in Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (The Gambia v. Myanmar: 11 States intervening), holds that Myanmar is responsible for committing genocide against the Rohingya in whole or in part — i.e. the Court finds the acts of the 2016–2017 clearance operations were committed with the requisite dolus specialis (intent to destroy the group as such) and attributable to the Myanmar state. A finding limited to failure to prevent, failure to punish, conspiracy, or non-compliance with the 2020 provisional measures order does NOT count as YES. Resolution source: the Court's own judgment/reading and press release at icj-cij.org/case/178.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1dbb8-b2af-7198-b485-54c0900557ee","title":"Will the ICJ instead find Myanmar responsible only for failing to prevent and/or punish genocide (or conspiracy), without holding it responsible for committing genocide?","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-14T20:21:17.102690Z","deadline":"2026-11-20T23:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1dbb8-e99e-7c2e-a49f-b36e64da2b47","title":"Will the ICJ reject The Gambia's genocide claims against Myanmar outright, finding no breach of the Genocide Convention?","status":"open","probability":0.2,"as_of":"2026-11-14T20:21:31.165502Z","deadline":"2026-11-20T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}