{"id":"01a1d9f5-bcc1-7440-a274-2200d3ae5615","title":"Will Russia's State Duma adopt bill No. 1101893-8 (KoAP fines for \"discrediting traditional values\") in the first reading at its 17 November 2026 plenary session, or by 18 November 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":"01a1d99d-3d04-749d-b8fb-97717e5412f0","deadline":"2026-11-18T20:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.85,"as_of":"2026-11-14T12:08:42.944584Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T12:08:42.944584Z","condition":"YES if the State Duma adopts bill No. 1101893-8 in the first reading at a plenary session on or before 18 November 2026 (a dated report of the vote, e.g. Interfax/RIA/Parliamentary Gazette/Duma transcript, counts). NO if the first reading is postponed beyond 18 November 2026, the bill is withdrawn or rejected, or no vote is recorded by then.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1d9f6-5b58-7643-8beb-2453d4ed4a00","title":"Will the first reading of bill No. 1101893-8 slip past 18 November 2026 but still be adopted by the Duma on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.1,"as_of":"2026-11-14T12:09:23.543701Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T20:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}