{"id":"01a1d985-c644-7f16-ac5e-a0c8b231fd7d","title":"Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-12-19T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-14T10:06:25.348500Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1d985-a29a-7755-962e-521d1a5a737d","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T10:06:25.348500Z","condition":"Resolves YES if the European Council's formal appointment of Lagarde's successor on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z names Pablo Hernández de Cos (currently BIS General Manager, former Bank of Spain governor). Resolves NO if a different individual is appointed, or no appointment is made by that date.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1d985-a29a-7755-962e-521d1a5a737d","title":"Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}