{"id":"01a1d985-a29a-7755-962e-521d1a5a737d","title":"Will EU leaders formally appoint Christine Lagarde's successor as ECB President at the 17–18 December 2026 European Council, on or before 19 December 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-12-19T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.6,"as_of":"2026-11-14T10:06:16.217958Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T10:06:16.217958Z","condition":"Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-19T23:59:59Z, the European Council formally appoints a named individual as ECB President to succeed Christine Lagarde (who leaves on 7 February 2027) — evidenced by European Council conclusions, a Council press release, or a dated wire report of the appointment made at the 17–18 December 2026 Brussels summit. Resolves NO if no such appointment has been made by that time (including if leaders agree a candidate politically but defer the formal appointment to 2027, or if the appointment is made after 19 December 2026).","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1d985-c63a-73bc-81d0-33dd79f24832","title":"Will Klaas Knot be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-14T10:06:25.337811Z","deadline":"2026-12-19T23:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1d985-c644-7f16-ac5e-a0c8b231fd7d","title":"Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the person EU leaders appoint as ECB President on or before 19 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-14T10:06:25.348500Z","deadline":"2026-12-19T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}