{"id":"01a1d8ae-2b52-7b47-86b9-e957a686a58f","title":"Will no new US-Israel military-aid MOU be announced by 31 December 2026, leaving the 2016 MOU to run to its 2028 expiry?","target_type":"decision","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-14T06:10:55.442255Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T06:10:55.442255Z","condition":"Yes if no new US-Israel military-aid MOU is publicly announced by 31 December 2026 — negotiations continue into 2027, or the two sides settle only on a narrower arrangement (e.g. NDAA-based co-production provisions) without a signed/announced MOU.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8","title":"Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}