{"id":"01a1d8ae-168f-7a0f-abac-ff0bd0fa05a8","title":"Will the US and Israel announce a new multi-year military-aid memorandum of understanding before the new Congress is sworn in, i.e. on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.55,"as_of":"2026-11-14T06:10:50.127057Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T06:10:50.127057Z","condition":"Yes if the US and Israeli governments publicly announce/finalise a new multi-year security memorandum of understanding on military assistance (the reported five-year, ~$16.5bn FMF framework beginning after the current MOU expires in 2028) on or before 31 December 2026. No if no new MOU is announced by then and the existing 2016 MOU simply runs to its 2028 expiry.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1d8ae-2b52-7b47-86b9-e957a686a58f","title":"Will no new US-Israel military-aid MOU be announced by 31 December 2026, leaving the 2016 MOU to run to its 2028 expiry?","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-14T06:10:55.442255Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}