{"id":"01a1d8ad-1005-7d2d-a97d-294274408460","title":"Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-11-26T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.12,"as_of":"2026-11-14T06:09:42.917291Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1d8ac-e3e4-75f7-9fa2-b3c1c203aca5","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T06:09:42.917291Z","condition":"Yes if the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation leaves Sullivan ahead of Peltola, or if the state's 25 November certification target slips past 26 November 2026 because of the DOJ suit or the spoiler-candidate investigations.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1d8ac-e3e4-75f7-9fa2-b3c1c203aca5","title":"Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}