{"id":"01a1d8ac-e3e4-75f7-9fa2-b3c1c203aca5","title":"Will Mary Peltola (D) be confirmed as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race — by the 18 November 2026 ranked-choice tabulation or an outright first-choice majority — on or before 26 November 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-11-26T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.88,"as_of":"2026-11-14T06:09:31.619630Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T06:09:31.619630Z","condition":"Yes if the Alaska Division of Elections' ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November 2026 (or the completed first-choice count, if a candidate clears 50%) leaves Mary Peltola with more votes than incumbent Dan S. Sullivan, and the race is called or certified for Peltola on or before 26 November 2026. No if Sullivan is tabulated/certified as the winner, or if certification is still blocked by litigation on 26 November 2026.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1d8ad-1005-7d2d-a97d-294274408460","title":"Will Dan S. Sullivan (R) instead be tabulated/certified as the winner of Alaska's 2026 U.S. Senate race, or will certification still be blocked by litigation, as of 26 November 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.12,"as_of":"2026-11-14T06:09:42.917291Z","deadline":"2026-11-26T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}