{"id":"01a1d761-7d80-7ee8-8d71-3eeb55327734","title":"Will the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":"01a1d71b-c965-7685-8638-4abe61a92f44","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.12,"as_of":"2026-11-14T00:07:32.992539Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1d761-6269-7883-ab6a-e8d2dcd9bd23","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T00:07:32.992539Z","condition":"YES if the US Navy's blockade of Iranian Persian Gulf / Gulf of Oman ports is formally lifted or suspended (announced by the US administration or confirmed by a major wire service) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if the blockade remains in force at that date.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1d761-6269-7883-ab6a-e8d2dcd9bd23","title":"Will the US and Iran sign a ceasefire / memorandum of understanding formally ending hostilities on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}