{"id":"01a1d761-6269-7883-ab6a-e8d2dcd9bd23","title":"Will the US and Iran sign a ceasefire / memorandum of understanding formally ending hostilities on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":"01a1d71b-c965-7685-8638-4abe61a92f44","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.2,"as_of":"2026-11-14T00:07:26.057014Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T00:07:26.057014Z","condition":"YES if the United States and Iran sign a ceasefire / memorandum of understanding that formally ends hostilities (as reported by a major wire service or either government) on or before 31 December 2026. NO if no such signed instrument exists by that date.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1d761-7d80-7ee8-8d71-3eeb55327734","title":"Will the US lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.12,"as_of":"2026-11-14T00:07:32.992539Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}