{"id":"01a1d760-31c1-7a0d-b75f-60e60b1243db","title":"Will the Knesset elect Matan Kahana (Yashar) as Speaker, replacing Likud's Amir Ohana, at the vote scheduled for 17 November 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1cc02-e2eb-7f46-ace3-76368e4515e4","deadline":"2026-11-18T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.72,"as_of":"2026-11-14T00:06:08.064882Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-14T00:06:08.064882Z","condition":"YES if the Knesset plenum holds the scheduled speaker election on 17 November 2026 (or any vote on or before 18 November 2026) and Matan Kahana wins a majority and is installed as Speaker, replacing Amir Ohana. NO if the vote is not held by 18 November, or is held and Kahana fails to win a majority.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1d760-5111-7153-a391-4885b0b8b5ab","title":"Will the 17 November 2026 Knesset speaker vote be postponed, or will Kahana fail to win a majority, leaving Amir Ohana as Speaker past 18 November 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.28,"as_of":"2026-11-14T00:06:16.080491Z","deadline":"2026-11-18T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}