{"id":"01a1d15a-7d78-7271-bec3-b388e224be6b","title":"Will the 20 November 2026 summit only \"welcome\" the SPS agreement in principle — no signature and no formal conclusion of negotiations, with implementation deferred to 2028?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c2f3-cfb3-75b8-a015-d6f2fb9f3e8d","deadline":"2026-11-21T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-12T20:02:10.933727Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c6a8-b794-727b-a865-93cf0a47cc4a","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-12T20:02:10.933727Z","condition":"YES if the 20 November 2026 Brussels summit's joint statement or readouts welcome/cluster the food and animal-health (SPS) agreement in principle but neither sign it nor formally conclude the negotiations, leaving implementation (e.g. alignment taking effect in 2028) to later work — as reported by the European Commission, the Council, the UK government or a major wire service. NO if the agreement is signed or negotiations are formally concluded at the summit, or if no SPS agreement is referenced at all.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c6a8-b794-727b-a865-93cf0a47cc4a","title":"Will the EU and UK sign the food and animal-health (SPS) agreement at the Brussels summit on 20 November 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}