{"id":"01a1d0f2-265b-78b0-a981-0810aeb07865","title":"Will the Moscow City Court on 25 November 2026 vary Igor Martyshov's measure — releasing him or moving him to house arrest?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1cf0b-9b42-7646-9af2-06b0dca7d43a","deadline":"2026-11-27T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.12,"as_of":"2026-11-12T18:08:12.888213Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1d0f2-0a9a-753f-8c70-33199703cf05","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-12T18:08:12.888213Z","condition":"YES if the 25 November 2026 appellate ruling overturns the custody extension and substitutes a non-custodial measure (release, bail, or house arrest) for Martyshov.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1d0f2-0a9a-753f-8c70-33199703cf05","title":"Will the Moscow City Court on 25 November 2026 leave YevroTrans chairman Igor Martyshov in pre-trial detention until 6 February 2027, dismissing the defence appeal?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}