{"id":"01a1cfa8-992a-7906-bd9f-86f2e5420660","title":"Will the US and China announce a broader trade agreement (beyond a technical rollover) before the 10 January 2027 truce expiry?","target_type":"decision","target_id":"01a1cdde-35c9-7673-9b14-519fcd420424","deadline":"2027-01-11T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.3,"as_of":"2026-11-12T12:08:15.397866Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1cfa8-4e08-7bc6-9378-7b5968d3c602","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-12T12:08:15.397866Z","condition":"Yes if, on or before 10 January 2027, the US and China announce a broader economic/trade agreement (e.g. the proposed $60bn reciprocal tariff-cut package, or a further multi-month truce) that covers the rare-earth export-control suspensions. No if the only action is a short technical rollover of the existing suspensions without a broader package.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1cfa8-4e08-7bc6-9378-7b5968d3c602","title":"Will China publish a further extension of its suspension of the October 2025 rare-earth export controls beyond 10 January 2027, on or before 10 January 2027?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}