{"id":"01a1cfa8-82f0-72d5-9509-2f083a8f54fb","title":"Will the DPP win the New Taipei City mayoralty in the 28 November 2026 local elections?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1cde4-2c02-73a9-bf95-fcc78a48c6d9","deadline":"2026-11-30T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-12T12:08:09.711400Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1cfa8-27ae-7c3d-82ca-ea1c7f490368","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-12T12:08:09.711400Z","condition":"Yes if the DPP candidate Su Chiao-hui is declared elected mayor of New Taipei City by the Central Election Commission after the 28 November 2026 vote. No if the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan or any other candidate wins.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1cfa8-27ae-7c3d-82ca-ea1c7f490368","title":"Will the Kuomintang win the largest number of Taiwan's 22 county and city leadership posts in the 28 November 2026 local elections?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}