{"id":"01a1cfa8-4e08-7bc6-9378-7b5968d3c602","title":"Will China publish a further extension of its suspension of the October 2025 rare-earth export controls beyond 10 January 2027, on or before 10 January 2027?","target_type":"decision","target_id":"01a1cdde-35c9-7673-9b14-519fcd420424","deadline":"2027-01-11T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.6,"as_of":"2026-11-12T12:07:56.149001Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-12T12:07:56.149001Z","condition":"Yes if MOFCOM and/or the General Administration of Customs publish an announcement on or before 10 January 2027 that keeps the October 2025 rare-earth/related export-control announcements (MOFCOM–GACC No. 55–58 of 2025 and MOFCOM No. 61–62 of 2025) suspended beyond 10 January 2027. No if no such announcement is published by that date and the suspension lapses.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1cfa8-992a-7906-bd9f-86f2e5420660","title":"Will the US and China announce a broader trade agreement (beyond a technical rollover) before the 10 January 2027 truce expiry?","status":"open","probability":0.3,"as_of":"2026-11-12T12:08:15.397866Z","deadline":"2027-01-11T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}