{"id":"01a1cd17-2abb-7f47-b5ec-24984f778a6a","title":"Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at its 8–9 December 2026 meeting?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1cc23-9b2d-7b89-93cb-94aa18565eb5","deadline":"2026-12-10T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.95,"as_of":"2026-11-12T00:10:09.959620Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-12T00:10:09.959620Z","condition":"Yes if the FOMC statement issued at the conclusion of the 8–9 December 2026 meeting raises the target range for the federal funds rate above 3.75–4.00% (i.e. by 25bp to 4.00–4.25% or by 50bp to 4.25–4.50%). No if the target range is left unchanged at 3.75–4.00% or lowered.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1cd17-3ce9-7c8d-b2f0-e3e486bba29e","title":"Will the FOMC raise the target range by exactly 25bp to 4.00–4.25% on 9 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.82,"as_of":"2026-11-12T00:10:14.629962Z","deadline":"2026-12-10T23:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1cd17-4b59-795d-9783-5be65f176efe","title":"Will the FOMC raise the target range by 50bp to 4.25–4.50% on 9 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.13,"as_of":"2026-11-12T00:10:18.325764Z","deadline":"2026-12-10T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}