{"id":"01a1cbcf-4add-7877-a7f1-a6280beba850","title":"Will COP31 in Antalya formally close with an adopted cover decision by 23:59 TRT on 20 November 2026, without the closing plenary being suspended to a resumed session?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c9cd-6fd7-7a49-86fe-40d097f54818","deadline":"2026-11-21T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.25,"as_of":"2026-11-11T18:12:02.393066Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-11T18:12:02.393066Z","condition":"YES if UNFCCC holds a closing plenary on 20 November 2026 at which the COP31 cover decision and the package of conference decisions are gavelled through, and no resumed session is announced. NO if the closing runs past 23:59 TRT on 20 November 2026, or the session is suspended/adjourned with substantive decisions deferred to a resumed session or to COP32.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1cbcf-6980-7e93-8f59-3287e067620c","title":"Will COP31's closing plenary overrun past 20 November 2026 but still gavel through a cover decision on or before 23 November 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.5,"as_of":"2026-11-11T18:12:10.226182Z","deadline":"2026-11-24T23:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1cbcf-b0b0-7fb2-b137-89441fcc7b51","title":"Will COP31 end without adopting a cover decision by 23 November 2026 — closing suspended to a resumed session or substantive decisions deferred to COP32?","status":"open","probability":0.25,"as_of":"2026-11-11T18:12:28.460611Z","deadline":"2026-11-24T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}