{"id":"01a1ca83-e464-7bbb-8631-40680cf416a7","title":"Will Indonesia's DPR fail to adopt the Hak Menyatakan Pendapat (HMP) against Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka by the end of Masa Persidangan II on 17 December 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":"01a1c964-9a68-75ee-937b-3009e754cf8d","deadline":"2026-12-17T16:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.9,"as_of":"2026-11-11T12:10:03.747954Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-11T12:10:03.747954Z","condition":"Yes if, by 23:59 WIB on 17 December 2026 (the last day of DPR Masa Persidangan II Tahun Sidang 2026-2027), no DPR plenary session has adopted the HMP proposal under Pasal 210(3)/212 UU MD3 — i.e. no plenary vote reached the required quorum of 2/3 of 580 members (387 present) with 2/3 of those present voting in favour. Announcement of the proposal in the 12 November plenary, referral to Bamus, or formation of a pansus without a plenary adoption vote does not count as adoption.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1ca84-cd30-77c5-b9cf-08038c9da418","title":"Will Gibran Rakabuming Raka formally resign as Vice-President of Indonesia before the DPR adopts the HMP, on or before 17 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-11T12:11:03.298284Z","deadline":"2026-12-17T16:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}