{"id":"01a1c7f2-75ea-7baf-9dcf-244a4ec45859","title":"Will Paraguay enact a law by 31 March 2027 giving priority/guarantees for restitution of pension-fund deposits (IPS, Caja Fiscal) frozen in Ueno Bank?","target_type":"decision","target_id":null,"deadline":"2027-03-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.3,"as_of":"2026-11-11T00:11:58.313240Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-11T00:11:58.313240Z","condition":"YES if Paraguay's Congress passes, and the Executive promulgates, a law that establishes priority or an explicit guarantee/mechanism for restitution of pension-fund deposits (Instituto de Previsión Social, Caja Fiscal and/or other cajas previsionales) frozen in the intervened Ueno Bank, on or before 2027-03-31T23:59:59Z. A presidential statement, a bill introduced but not enacted, or the existing deposit-guarantee (FGD) payout to individual savers does NOT count.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c7f2-9dbe-7dac-b0ec-d7d3aca42714","title":"Will Paraguay instead handle Ueno Bank pension-fund restitution by decree or administrative action, with no new law enacted by 31 March 2027?","status":"open","probability":0.35,"as_of":"2026-11-11T00:12:08.508278Z","deadline":"2027-03-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}