{"id":"01a1c7f2-11c5-733b-853e-0efd18a1aff8","title":"Will a further US–Russia–Ukraine trilateral round (beyond the 10–11 November 2026 Abu Dhabi talks) be held on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c7a4-fce0-75b6-9f64-cea8653c2369","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.55,"as_of":"2026-11-11T00:11:32.675767Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-11T00:11:32.675767Z","condition":"YES if a further round of US–Russia–Ukraine trilateral talks (a new meeting beyond the 10–11 November 2026 Abu Dhabi round) is actually held, with delegations from all three countries present, on or before 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z. Consultations by phone, bilateral Witkoff/Kushner trips to Moscow or Kyiv alone, or a merely announced-but-not-held meeting do NOT count.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}