{"id":"01a1c7f1-b829-7d23-9755-842417bb19f5","title":"Will Spain's data-protection agency (AEPD) order a provisional suspension of TikTok's activity in Spain on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":"01a1c742-2d14-702a-b126-91c9fde9829d","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.12,"as_of":"2026-11-11T00:11:09.731349Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-11T00:11:09.731349Z","condition":"YES if the Agencia Española de Protección de Datos publishes a resolution or decision (e.g. under Art. 66.1 GDPR) ordering a provisional/temporary suspension or prohibition of TikTok's data processing with legal effect in Spain, on or before 2026-12-31T23:59:59Z. A request, an internal study, a referral to prosecutors, or a measure limited to individual accounts does NOT count.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c7f2-87f4-7782-afa2-f0b8fb7d4bf7","title":"Will the AEPD decline or leave unanswered the request to suspend TikTok in Spain, so that no suspension order is issued by 31 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.88,"as_of":"2026-11-11T00:12:02.929923Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}