{"id":"01a1c6a8-4f6d-77fe-af8e-a84d0866f281","title":"Will the special European Council of 26–27 November 2026 agree new EU financing to cover Ukraine's 2027 budget shortfall?","target_type":"decision","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-11-28T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.3,"as_of":"2026-11-10T18:11:21.564869Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T18:11:21.564869Z","condition":"Yes if the European Council conclusions, or an official statement issued at or immediately after the 26–27 November 2026 special summit in Brussels, record a political agreement among member states on new EU financing for Ukraine's 2027 needs (e.g. a new joint loan, guarantees or budget headroom) on top of the existing €90bn Ukraine Support Loan. No if the summit ends without such an agreement, or explicitly defers the decision to a later meeting.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c6a8-df48-73ab-8b91-ace202c39e3a","title":"Will the 26–27 November 2026 special European Council end without any new EU financing decision for Ukraine's 2027 gap, deferring it to a later meeting?","status":"open","probability":0.65,"as_of":"2026-11-10T18:11:58.407339Z","deadline":"2026-11-28T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}