{"id":"01a1c5ff-62b6-7fe9-9402-056996d39ab7","title":"Will a Trump–Xi–Putin trilateral meeting actually be held on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18–19 November 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c5d6-5f72-7514-bc4f-85f990efc17e","deadline":"2026-11-20T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.32,"as_of":"2026-11-12T04:00:00Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T15:06:50.931696Z","condition":"YES if a three-way meeting with Trump, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin all physically present takes place in Shenzhen during the APEC leaders' meeting window of 18–19 November 2026, as reported by a major wire service or an official readout from the White House, Kremlin or Chinese MFA. A bilateral Trump–Xi or Trump–Putin meeting alone, or a phone/video call, does not count.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c5ff-c98a-778f-b165-1a745d9130db","title":"Will Trump and Xi hold a bilateral meeting in Shenzhen during APEC (18–19 November 2026) even if no trilateral with Putin takes place?","status":"open","probability":0.56,"as_of":"2026-11-12T04:00:00Z","deadline":"2026-11-20T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":17}