{"id":"01a1c55c-a2d5-7290-90f4-555798319e7d","title":"Will the EU Council adopt new Iran-related restrictive measures (asset freezes and/or travel bans on named persons or entities) in response to the October 2026 cyberattacks on European retail refrigeration systems on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"decision","target_id":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-10T12:09:04.980242Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T12:09:04.980242Z","condition":"Yes if, on or before 2026-12-31, the Council of the EU adopts a Council Decision and/or Implementing Regulation adding at least one natural or legal person to an EU Iran sanctions annex (or to the EU cyber-sanctions framework) where the designation is publicly linked to the 11-12 October 2026 attacks on supermarket refrigeration systems / the IRGC-CEC unit 'Shahid Kaveh' (also tracked as CyberAveng3rs). A Council press release announcing the listings, or publication in the Official Journal, counts. A statement of intent, a tasking of the EEAS, or a discussion at the 16 November Foreign Affairs Council without adopted listings does NOT count.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}