{"id":"01a1c411-7681-7410-a202-7e6c5354e72e","title":"Will 2026 end with no US–Iran Hormuz agreement and the strait still effectively closed to normal commercial traffic?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c36c-4b06-7dcd-ab8d-2d6d9262b7cf","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.75,"as_of":"2026-11-10T06:07:21.216034Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c411-5e82-7b43-b0ba-8e3b1921f74a","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T06:07:21.216034Z","condition":"Yes if no dated report by 2026-12-31T23:59Z announces a US–Iran agreement including Hormuz reopening, and the strait remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic (AIS-visible transits far below the pre-crisis ~85/day baseline).","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c411-5e82-7b43-b0ba-8e3b1921f74a","title":"Will the US and Iran announce an agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}