{"id":"01a1c411-5e82-7b43-b0ba-8e3b1921f74a","title":"Will the US and Iran announce an agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c36c-4b06-7dcd-ab8d-2d6d9262b7cf","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.25,"as_of":"2026-11-10T06:07:15.073622Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T06:07:15.073622Z","condition":"Yes if a dated report from a major outlet or official (US State Department/White House, Iranian foreign ministry, Qatari mediation) states that the US and Iran have reached an agreement whose terms include reopening the Strait of Hormuz (e.g. the Qatari two-day plan: US lifts the naval blockade/releases frozen assets, Iran reopens the strait). No if no such agreement is announced by the deadline, or if talks are formally suspended without one.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c411-7681-7410-a202-7e6c5354e72e","title":"Will 2026 end with no US–Iran Hormuz agreement and the strait still effectively closed to normal commercial traffic?","status":"open","probability":0.75,"as_of":"2026-11-10T06:07:21.216034Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}