{"id":"01a1c410-e46f-78e6-b55f-30ab207b843b","title":"Will the new EAEU cross-border e-commerce customs regime actually enter into force on 1 January 2027, as the graph's start_date records?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1be78-61f1-7b7e-85a1-ba32f507e674","deadline":"2027-01-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.6,"as_of":"2026-11-10T06:06:43.818657Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T06:06:43.818657Z","condition":"Yes if a dated source (EEC announcement, national customs service, or major outlet) reports that the Protocol amending the EAEU Customs Code on cross-border e-commerce entered into force and the new regime (5% duty, min €1/kg, €200 duty-free threshold, e-commerce operator declaration) applies to imports from 1 January 2027. No if entry into force is postponed past 1 January 2027 or the start date passes without the regime operating.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}