{"id":"01a1c410-b3a4-79d2-8e78-6e3b0a467a01","title":"Will Japarov fail to file nomination documents before the Kyrgyz CEC nomination window closes, leaving the incumbent off the 27 January 2027 ballot at the nomination stage?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1aee3-aa4d-7799-be30-ff2333417d11","deadline":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","status":"invalidated","probability":0.08,"as_of":"2026-11-10T10:00:00Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c410-7d3e-780e-ab2f-2a19de2f2081","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T06:06:31.330750Z","condition":"Yes if no dated report shows Japarov filing a self-nomination application with Kyrgyzstan's CEC by 2026-11-14T00:00Z, i.e. the nomination window closes with the incumbent not having submitted documents (as was still the case per Azattyq, published 2026-11-09).","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c410-7d3e-780e-ab2f-2a19de2f2081","title":"Will incumbent President Sadyr Japarov submit his nomination documents to Kyrgyzstan's CEC before the candidate-nomination window closes (12–13 November 2026)?","status":"resolved"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":3}