{"id":"01a1c410-7d3e-780e-ab2f-2a19de2f2081","title":"Will incumbent President Sadyr Japarov submit his nomination documents to Kyrgyzstan's CEC before the candidate-nomination window closes (12–13 November 2026)?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1aee3-aa4d-7799-be30-ff2333417d11","deadline":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z","status":"resolved","probability":0.92,"as_of":"2026-11-10T10:00:00Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":{"value":1},"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T06:06:17.404263Z","condition":"Yes if a dated report (CEC statement or credible news outlet) shows Japarov filed a self-nomination application with the Central Commission for Elections and Referenda for the 27 January 2027 presidential election on or before the close of the nomination window. The graph records the deadline as 12 November 2026 at 24:00 (CIS91, published_on 2026-11-05); Kabar (2026-11-03) says applications close at midnight on 12 November, while gazeta.kg and Azattyq (2026-11-06/07) say nomination ends 13 November. To cover both readings the deadline is set to 2026-11-14T00:00Z. No if no such filing is reported by then.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c410-b3a4-79d2-8e78-6e3b0a467a01","title":"Will Japarov fail to file nomination documents before the Kyrgyz CEC nomination window closes, leaving the incumbent off the 27 January 2027 ballot at the nomination stage?","status":"invalidated","probability":0.08,"as_of":"2026-11-10T10:00:00Z","deadline":"2026-11-14T00:00:00Z"}],"resolution":{"outcome":{"value":1},"resolved_at":"2026-11-10T11:00:00Z","source":"official","evidence":{"quote":"Сегодня, 10 ноября, Президент Кыргызской Республики Садыр Нургожоевич Жапаров обратился в Центральную комиссию по выборам и проведению референдумов Кыргызской Республики с заявлением о выдвижении своей кандидатуры на должность Президента Кыргызской Республики в порядке самовыдвижения.","url":"https://shailoo.gov.kg/ru/news/8801/","publisher":"Центральная комиссия по выборам и проведению референдумов КР (shailoo.gov.kg)"}},"point_count":5}