{"id":"01a1c2c3-6e82-723e-9a5d-be0a02480fa5","title":"Will Sheikh Hasina physically return to Bangladesh from exile on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c288-fb63-7285-a796-5b6ed1fb6251","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.2,"as_of":"2026-11-10T00:02:30.145435Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-10T00:02:30.145435Z","condition":"YES if Sheikh Hasina physically arrives in Bangladesh (any airport/land crossing) on or before 31 December 2026, as reported by a dated wire or Bangladeshi outlet. NO if she has not entered Bangladesh by 31 December 2026, including if she announces a further postponement or is prevented from travelling.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}