{"id":"01a1c220-7045-7844-afe1-add9fe871497","title":"Will PP and Vox fall short of 176 seats in Spain's 29 November 2026 election, leaving no right-bloc majority?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c11e-cdac-7b60-92c9-818271cd3fc0","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:04:28.228537Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c220-562b-773f-8d3a-bddbec9e1c47","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T21:04:28.228537Z","condition":"YES if the official count gives PP and Vox 175 seats or fewer combined in the 350-seat Congress, so that no PP-Vox majority exists and government formation depends on other parties. NO if they reach 176 or more.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c220-562b-773f-8d3a-bddbec9e1c47","title":"Will Spain's PP and Vox together win an absolute majority (176+ of 350 seats) in the 29 November 2026 general election?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}