{"id":"01a1c220-562b-773f-8d3a-bddbec9e1c47","title":"Will Spain's PP and Vox together win an absolute majority (176+ of 350 seats) in the 29 November 2026 general election?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c11e-cdac-7b60-92c9-818271cd3fc0","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.85,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:04:21.546731Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T21:04:21.546731Z","condition":"YES if, in the Spanish general election of 29 November 2026, the Partido Popular (PP) and Vox together win at least 176 of the 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies, per the official count published by the Junta Electoral Central / BOE. NO if their combined seat total is 175 or fewer. Votes for PP-UPN or other PP-linked regional lists count toward the PP total only if those deputies sit with the PP group; state the counting rule used when resolving.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c220-7045-7844-afe1-add9fe871497","title":"Will PP and Vox fall short of 176 seats in Spain's 29 November 2026 election, leaving no right-bloc majority?","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:04:28.228537Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1c220-704d-7ac4-8988-ca0e29e26601","title":"Will the Partido Popular win the most seats of any single party in Spain's 29 November 2026 general election?","status":"open","probability":0.9,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:04:28.235697Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}