{"id":"01a1c220-561d-782b-b151-3182084d82c6","title":"Will the IMO defer the Net-Zero Framework adoption decision again, past 31 December 2026, without adopting it?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1bd9b-c87c-7931-9645-a15173c80c7f","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.6,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:04:21.532998Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c220-33a0-7474-a80d-8e4dcf8e0153","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T21:04:21.532998Z","condition":"YES if the resumed extraordinary session (or MEPC 85) ends without adoption and the decision is deferred again — e.g. adjourned to a further session in 2027, or MEPC 85 declines to confirm the 4 December resumption — on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the framework is adopted by that date.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c220-33a0-7474-a80d-8e4dcf8e0153","title":"Will the IMO formally adopt the Net-Zero Framework (MARPOL Annex VI amendments) at the resumed extraordinary session on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}