{"id":"01a1c220-33a0-7474-a80d-8e4dcf8e0153","title":"Will the IMO formally adopt the Net-Zero Framework (MARPOL Annex VI amendments) at the resumed extraordinary session on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1bd9b-c87c-7931-9645-a15173c80c7f","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.3,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:04:12.703698Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":1,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T21:04:12.703698Z","condition":"YES if the resumed second extraordinary session of the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (or MEPC 85 acting in its place) formally adopts the draft MARPOL Annex VI amendments constituting the Net-Zero Framework on or before 2026-12-31, as reported by the IMO itself (press briefing or adopted-resolution notice). NO if the session is adjourned again, the vote is deferred, or no adoption instrument exists by that date.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c220-561d-782b-b151-3182084d82c6","title":"Will the IMO defer the Net-Zero Framework adoption decision again, past 31 December 2026, without adopting it?","status":"open","probability":0.6,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:04:21.532998Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}