{"id":"01a1c21f-ff0f-7048-8311-0e79f3cfa196","title":"Will Pete Hegseth leave office as Secretary of Defense (resign or be removed) before the House votes on the impeachment resolution, on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c1fa-fca7-7b64-a521-4e8f1efc77a0","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.1,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:03:59.240283Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c21f-d9e6-7fc2-8b44-1c67adc730a8","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T21:03:59.240283Z","condition":"YES if a dated report shows Hegseth resigned or was removed/dismissed from the post of Secretary of Defense on or before 2026-12-31 and before any House vote on the Massie resolution. NO otherwise. Senate conviction is not required for this branch.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c21f-d9e6-7fc2-8b44-1c67adc730a8","title":"Will the US House of Representatives pass a resolution impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}