{"id":"01a1c21f-d9e6-7fc2-8b44-1c67adc730a8","title":"Will the US House of Representatives pass a resolution impeaching Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c1fa-fca7-7b64-a521-4e8f1efc77a0","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.3,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:03:49.732567Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T21:03:49.732567Z","condition":"YES if the House adopts (by simple majority, on a recorded vote) the privileged resolution filed by Rep. Thomas Massie on 9 November 2026 containing eight articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth, on or before 2026-12-31. NO if the resolution is tabled, rejected, withdrawn, or never brought to a vote by that date. A resignation or removal of Hegseth before the vote is neither YES nor NO for this question (see branches).","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c21f-ff0f-7048-8311-0e79f3cfa196","title":"Will Pete Hegseth leave office as Secretary of Defense (resign or be removed) before the House votes on the impeachment resolution, on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.1,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:03:59.240283Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1c21f-ff22-7430-b2d5-b09b1a477a10","title":"Will the House table, reject, or otherwise dispose of Massie's Hegseth impeachment resolution without adopting it on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.6,"as_of":"2026-11-09T21:03:59.265707Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}