{"id":"01a1c1be-1f62-78b8-bc82-3287d6bf3721","title":"Will ITLOS order the UK to halt Sea Lion hydrocarbon exploitation in Case No. 37 on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1b5bc-3571-7d2d-949a-a33f0f9363ff","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-09T19:17:04.993922Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c1bd-ecce-7ae6-8232-2ad6160b9420","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T19:17:04.993922Z","condition":"YES if the Order in Case No. 37 published on or before 2026-12-31 requires the United Kingdom to prevent the commencement or continuation of hydrocarbon exploitation in the North Malvinas Basin by the Sea Lion project (Argentina's requested measure (a)), whether or not other measures are also prescribed. NO if the Order omits that measure, or no Order is published by the deadline.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c1bd-ecce-7ae6-8232-2ad6160b9420","title":"Will ITLOS prescribe at least one provisional measure against the UK in the Sea Lion case (Case No. 37) on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}