{"id":"01a1c1bd-ecce-7ae6-8232-2ad6160b9420","title":"Will ITLOS prescribe at least one provisional measure against the UK in the Sea Lion case (Case No. 37) on or before 31 December 2026?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1b5bc-3571-7d2d-949a-a33f0f9363ff","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.45,"as_of":"2026-11-10T07:00:01Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T19:16:52.042207Z","condition":"YES if the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea publishes an Order in Case No. 37 (Dispute concerning hydrocarbon exploitation in the South-West Atlantic Ocean, Argentina v. United Kingdom, Provisional Measures) on or before 2026-12-31 that prescribes at least one provisional measure binding the United Kingdom — including a minimal non-aggravation, information-sharing or environmental measure, not only an order halting Sea Lion. NO if the Tribunal rejects the request in its entirety, or if no Order has been published by 2026-12-31.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c1be-06b5-7dd1-b5e5-74300fb7064f","title":"Will ITLOS reject Argentina's provisional-measures request in Case No. 37 in its entirety on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.55,"as_of":"2026-11-09T19:16:58.677127Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"},{"id":"01a1c1be-1f62-78b8-bc82-3287d6bf3721","title":"Will ITLOS order the UK to halt Sea Lion hydrocarbon exploitation in Case No. 37 on or before 31 December 2026?","status":"open","probability":0.15,"as_of":"2026-11-09T19:17:04.993922Z","deadline":"2026-12-31T23:59:59Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":2}