{"id":"01a1c131-d818-7b41-ab68-aaea9f3859e0","title":"Will the Ak-Zhorgo demolition begin between 1 March 2027 and 31 May 2027 — i.e. the owners' requested delay is granted, but only until spring?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1bfc1-4e5d-7396-9416-d03b9b5544de","deadline":"2027-05-31T17:59:59Z","status":"open","probability":0.3,"as_of":"2026-11-09T16:43:51.704102Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c130-6df7-7cbf-a7b4-4787eb8dc642","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T16:43:51.704102Z","condition":"Resolves YES if a dated report (Kaktus.media, 24.kg, Kabar, AKIpress, or the Bishkek mayor's office) shows municipal demolition machinery physically on the Ak-Zhorgo site in Bishkek's 12th microdistrict at some point after 2027-03-01T00:00:00+06:00 and on or before 2027-05-31T23:59:59+06:00. Resolves NO if no demolition has begun by 2027-05-31, or if the site is formally cancelled/redeveloped without demolition. Silence alone does not resolve the question.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c130-6df7-7cbf-a7b4-4787eb8dc642","title":"Will the Bishkek mayor's office formally postpone the Ak-Zhorgo demolition so that no demolition occurs before 1 March 2027?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}