{"id":"01a1c129-34b6-78bb-942d-fbb3dfb55a88","title":"Will the new Russian localization requirements for additive production take effect earlier than 1 January 2028 — i.e. on or before 31 December 2027?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c083-61b6-73b3-967b-62094dc401db","deadline":"2027-12-31T20:59:00Z","status":"open","probability":0.1,"as_of":"2026-11-09T16:34:25.588948Z","is_exclusive":true,"parent_forecast_id":"01a1c129-1556-7ab7-864d-9d9171f2bb45","branch_count":0,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T16:34:25.588948Z","condition":"YES if a dated official Russian source (decree, EAEU technical-regulation amendment, or federal law) shows the localization requirements for additive production applying in Russia on or before 2027-12-31, i.e. the 2028-01-01 start_date in the graph was too late. NO if no such source exists by 2027-12-31 — which does not by itself prove the parent, only that this earlier branch did not happen.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":{"id":"01a1c129-1556-7ab7-864d-9d9171f2bb45","title":"Will Russia's new localization requirements for additive production be in force on 1 January 2028, as the graph's start_date records?","status":"open"},"branches":[],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}