{"id":"01a1c129-1556-7ab7-864d-9d9171f2bb45","title":"Will Russia's new localization requirements for additive production be in force on 1 January 2028, as the graph's start_date records?","target_type":"event","target_id":"01a1c083-61b6-73b3-967b-62094dc401db","deadline":"2027-12-31T21:00:00Z","status":"open","probability":0.5,"as_of":"2026-11-09T16:34:17.557285Z","is_exclusive":false,"parent_forecast_id":null,"branch_count":2,"resolution_outcome":null,"recorded_at":"2026-11-09T16:34:17.557285Z","condition":"YES if a dated official Russian source (government decree, EAEU technical-regulation amendment, or federal law) shows the new localization requirements for additive production applying in Russia on 2028-01-01 and not having applied before that date. NO if the requirements applied earlier than 2028-01-01, or were postponed to a later date (including a later date in 2028) or withdrawn before taking effect. Silence is not a NO: if no dated official source exists by the deadline, the forecast stays open.","forecast_type":"binary","parent":null,"branches":[{"id":"01a1c129-34b6-78bb-942d-fbb3dfb55a88","title":"Will the new Russian localization requirements for additive production take effect earlier than 1 January 2028 — i.e. on or before 31 December 2027?","status":"open","probability":0.1,"as_of":"2026-11-09T16:34:25.588948Z","deadline":"2027-12-31T20:59:00Z"},{"id":"01a1c129-34cd-7ba3-b1b6-2e5dc9171649","title":"Will the 2028 start of Russia's additive-production localization requirements be postponed past 1 January 2028 or withdrawn before it takes effect?","status":"open","probability":0.2,"as_of":"2026-11-09T16:34:25.612762Z","deadline":"2028-12-31T20:59:00Z"}],"resolution":null,"point_count":1}